Ten Things DFS Players Must Never Do
So, as a newborn, you’re participating in daily fantasy sports (DFS) for the first time. Good. dive in with both feet or your head first. However, wait till you have read the list of the 10 things DFS players must never, ever do.
In order to help you quickly learn the games we enjoy playing at daily fantasy sites like DraftKings, Bleacher Report has put together a guide. Do not experience overwhelm. Daily cash withdrawals are far simpler than you would imagine.
We hired DK Pro Jonathan Bales, who is not only regarded as a skilled daily fantasy player but has also published books on the subject, to help with the methods presented in this slideshow. One of the five sponsored players and writers for their exclusive content section, DraftKings Playbook, is represented by his work.
Be sure to pay attention to what Bales has to say. He won $95,000 in the DraftKings baseball tournament the previous year (by combining the profits from his lineup with the ability to trade ownership in his seat—yes, that is a thing for the experienced players). Like you, he has received a few cashouts totaling $10,000 or more, and he is just getting started.
On Monday, March 23, we had a phone interview with him, and the results are included in this slideshow. Here is the list, now
1. Pay attention to news, especially when it involves injuries.
If you regularly participate in daily fantasy sports, you ought to be knowledgeable about this.
The majority of daily fantasy games are based on a salary cap and the exclusive dollar values that each gaming site sets. These prices are determined by a mathematical method that is unbiased and unaffected by recent news.
Here is where the daily fantasy sports industry exhibits the most inefficiency. A player who unexpectedly leaves the game is plainly worthless. His replacement might actually be worth his weight in gold.
The dollar values are rarely, if ever, adjusted after news breaks, and if you enjoy stacking your lineup with expensive ace players, those sneaky deals become crucial to putting together a successful lineup.
Bales claims
The fantasy basketball game that depends the most on injury and news updates is daily fantasy basketball. To get the best deals, he advised planning to be at your computer just before the games begin.
Baseball starting lineups are usually decided upon earlier in the day and are reliable sources of information.
Nothing helps a daily fantasy football squad more than a cheap running back who suddenly receives touches and snaps due to an injury.
2. Delay setting your lineups.
This piece of advice is connected to the first, but it comes with a proviso: You can plan your lineup ahead of time, but you should always go back and adjust it if any news occurs.
Yes, this makes playing daily fantasy sound like a work, but it’s actually enjoyable and might even pay off.
Think of this as a secondary job. Ideally, it will enable you to earn more than $10 per hour.
You should read what daily fantasy analysts recommend on a regular basis, but don’t take their advice as gospel. Before the games start, a lot can change over the day and into the evening.
The majority of the time, it is a result of an injury or a coach’s decision to scratch a player. Rainouts can have a significant impact on how baseball games turn out. If a game in Colorado or Cleveland is postponed in April due to snow, you don’t want to take zeros.
Bales claims
For baseball or basketball, wait to set your lineup until the day of the game. Even when those clubs’ current games are being played, the DraftKing queue frequently offers matchups far in advance. You must wait till the games are over and the subsequent news is released. A player may be injured or benched due to subpar play.
Consider all factors up until the start of the game, just as our first piece of slideshow advice. Basketball news typically provides you with less forewarning than baseball and football news.
Consider the collective wisdom. Allow yourself time to observe what others are doing and make changes if necessary. (More to follow on this.)
3. Pay Attention to Outside Data
In Sin City, seeing Elvis Presley and Marilyn Monroe is pure imagination, but in order to cash in on daily fantasy, you have to follow the money. Daily fantasy isn’t gambling, though. Although it is a legitimate game of skill, we may use those line-setters to our advantage in fantasy sports.
DK Pro Bales is adamant about the accuracy of his odds analysis and even goes further to check the data for player props for events like the Super Bowl. You will see the same thing if you read my stuff at B/R.
For very excellent reasons, these professional bookmakers are still in business and making tons of cash. They have highly intelligent individuals studying data and statistics. Men like me and Bales, but ones that have a highly lucrative profession simply providing the data to the casinos to create the lines, over-under totals, and statistical player props.
We should believe their numbers to be quite accurate because they are the ones with the most money at stake, Bales added.
I couldn’t have put it more succinctly.
Bales continues:
In daily fantasy baseball, stacking—filling your lineup entirely with members of one team—is a crucial tactic. By examining which games oddsmakers predict will have the most scoring or even the biggest blowout, you can identify the team(s) to stack with.
Regardless of how adept you are at creating projection algorithms, professionals earn a lot of money to maintain the odds in their favor. These are intelligent individuals with excellent data and excellent data tools.
4. Avoid Tunnel Vision
Bales told us about this throughout the interview, but I was actually just using confirmation bias. In terms of numbers and data, the wisdom of the crowd typically outweighs a single man’s judgment, estimates, or daily fantasy picks.
That’s how I’ve always felt. Because of this, all of my fantasy rankings and projections are based on crowdsourcing techniques, such as weighing average draft position. Even if I am convinced of someone, it won’t matter if I am overestimating him. The collective wisdom often comes closer to fantasy’s actuality (pun entirely intended).
This argument asserts that ten analysts are smarter than one.
We specifically questioned Bales regarding the components of his daily fantasy basketball algorithm for NBA games. He made two statements:
the collective wisdom.
Player props and game lines.
In our slideshow of 10 things to think about, crowdsourcing came in first place, despite being more in the middle of the pack.
Bales claims
Find at least three reliable sources for projections. data estimates, rankings, or values in relation to pricing.
Include your own.
To produce a result that is less prejudiced, more far from fantasy, and more realistic, add them all together. (Actually, I wrote that last sentence myself, simply for the sake of being clever. Just now, he said “average them.”
Even if you might know one squad better than the others, avoid having team bias.
5. Pay Attention to Public Perception
This slide is connected to the preceding one, but it also offers somewhat contradictory advice and is taken directly from a suggestion made by Bales as a DK Pro: You must be conscious of how people perceive you (s).
…and then flee from it.
There may be a defect in the wisdom of the crowd, but it can also be accurate. Perhaps the biggest inefficiency in the daily fantasy sports industry can be found there.
The heated hands are a favorite among all. You can end up following everyone else in chasing yesterday’s news. Choose stars from today or tomorrow, not from yesterday.
Basic statistics can provide insight into the past and deceive many daily fantasy sports participants. Instead of concentrating on what was, you should pay more attention to the predictive data and what may have been.
Bales claims
Baseball has a higher level of randomness than the other daily fantasy sports.
Basketball has a higher value focus.
Since popular perception can distort everyday prices and fantasy realities, he doesn’t follow the hot hands in baseball.
6. Be a contrarian and refuse to follow everyone else’s lead like sheep.
Another piece of advise from the earlier slides that is relevant but possibly distinct. No one would win in daily fantasy if everyone had the same lineup. All of us would tie.
You want to create a distinct, successful lineup. This is why I rarely use the generalization “Set this as your lineup” in the articles I create.
I consistently offer a range of options that I can firmly support. You are free to choose from them and create the ideal combination. You must create the mixture; I or anyone else cannot.
If you have a unique and superior lineup to everyone else, those large tournament rewards at sites like DraftKings are a lot more profitable. Sharing is awful.
Bales claims
“You have to be cognizant of the public view, and it is less about an algorithm,” a baseball expert said. In baseball, I often take a contrary stance (than NBA or NFL).
If Kentucky is the favorite in a basketball game during the NCAA tournament, it could be preferable to pick a different player and play against the other 90% of participants.
Do not favor the East Coast. Daily fantasy players are optimistic on players on the East Coast, according to statistics, he said. In baseball, he enjoys playing West Coast players.
7. Don’t be afraid of variation; it might be profitable
This is one that Bales excels at. I must admit that when betting money on something, I am risk-averse. When constructing my lineups and giving daily fantasy advise, I like statistical support.
Even though I pointed out in the interview that Bales’ statement seemed to fly in the face of fantasy’s reality, he insisted that unpredictability has meaning. His answer:
Being a contrarian has more value the more randomness there is. It is against common sense to value randomness. It is more important to take advantage of predictability than it is to forecast things precisely. The edge grows as unpredictability increases.
That makes sense, even though it is a little hazy.
You need to have a special lineup and a tiny bit of educated luck to win big in daily fantasy sports. With wise tactics and wise daily lineup decisions, you can create your own luck.
Bales claims
His favorite daily fantasy sport is baseball since so many people pay close attention to the data and because luck can go in his favor to win major tournaments, as it did when he won $95,000 playing baseball with a friend last year.
He tends to find value in those guys who nobody is over because they are hot instead of following the hot hands.
Baseball has the most statistics, but NBA is a more reliable data-driven daily fantasy sport.
8. Don’t use the same approach for every sport.
This presentation is meant to be applicable to all daily fantasy sports. The truth is that every sport should be treated separately and with a unique perspective.
Bales compared and contrasted the various games for a significant piece of our interview on Monday. Once more, you can benefit from this, he said.
I am more inclined to be a contrarian in baseball tournaments than in NBA games. Basketball is highly predictable and value-based. In baseball, you have a lot more room for error, but everyone else does too. You must become an authority on the specifics of each game. Bales can assist:
Baseball is less dependent on daily estimates and data algorithms than the NBA.
The most game-to-game factors that affect performance are found in football, including matchup, game plan, touches, and personnel selections.
Even while he enjoys playing daily fantasy baseball games, he finds no value in actually watching baseball games every night. It’s a different beast every day.
He finds value in watching football, and he typically watches more games than he doesn’t.
He will overpay for stars since he doesn’t care as much about value in relation to price in baseball.
He frequently overpays for football stars “like Calvin Johnson,” especially given that injuries (particularly at running back) can lead to deals elsewhere.
9. Avoid Choosing the Wrong Actions
You must comprehend the variations in daily fantasy sports as well as the many games you will be playing and how different techniques may change how you play. There are numerous other methods for cat skinning.
Do not skin cats, please. It sounds cruel.
But you should surely play daily fantasy games the appropriate manner.
These are the typical several ways to invest money in games:
Large-pool, guaranteed tournaments: These have the best prizes, the largest chance of a draw, and, bonus!, the most inexperienced participants.
In 50/50 pools, you form lineups with a number of other players, and the top half of the scorers lose money while the bottom half of the entries double their money. These are typically the most secure methods of gaming. Even if they don’t offer the biggest prizes, you often lose the least money here (a very important strategy in any gaming).
You play one opponent head-to-head and receive his entry fee less the house rake. If you obtain a “donkey” or a “fish,” winning these can be incredibly simple (a poor player who is throwing good money after bad). In addition, if you manage to capture a daily fantasy pro, they might be really challenging.
You can do multipliers like 2x (like 50/50), 3x, 5x, 10x, etc. To win money playing these games, you must finish higher the larger the multiplier. They may be lucrative, but you may also be up against some extremely reliable and knowledgeable opponents.
Everyone should begin with the free rolls. On some of the sites, you can play without risk, and the host may offer payouts to give you a taste of winning.
Bales claims
The most randomness is introduced during tournament play. There are many various lineups and levels of play quality that you must contend with. Bear in mind that Bales encourages chance.
In tournament play, he hunts for picks with a lot of upside. Once more, he doesn’t mind paying more than necessary for studs because they have the highest ceilings.
In other smaller-pool games, he places a greater emphasis on consistency and statistical certainty.
10. Let go of your ego and refrain from challenging professionals.
You will always be outsmarted by someone. As a youth sports coach, I frequently remind my top athletes that there will always be someone better than them.
You are not a genius, even if you can routinely win at daily fantasy sports. You are as fortunate as you are intelligent. You have heard it said before, after all: It is better to be lucky than good.
This is where we get at our tenth and last rule for DFS players: Embrace your ego. It is a guaranteed recipe for failure (pun entirely intended).
Bales is a skilled daily fantasy sports player in addition to being a fantasy commentator. Even though he makes more money playing games than writing about them, he indicated that he spends more time writing about them. A DK Pro like himself is the type of person who can have an ego and puff out his chest.
Nope. None of that is necessary for him. He demands dollars.
I don’t want to prove anything to anyone, so I avoid the pros,” he admitted. I lack an ego. Playing against professionals out of ego is a surefire way to lose money over time.
More issues bring more money.
It makes sense that the better the player, the larger the stakes (s). Observe that. Professionals are less likely to play daily fantasy with us commoners.
When betting large sums of money on games, be prepared to study more and win less frequently.
Bales claims
As more new/novice players are exposed to daily fantasy, large-pool tournaments are becoming simpler to win (for good, solid players).
Head-to-head and 50/50 games, which he refers to as “cash games,” are becoming more difficult because veterans are becoming increasingly shrewd, reliable, and difficult to play against and are aware that these are safer ways to play.
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